Very pleased to announce the publication of our new working paper together with colleagues from Fraunhofer Institute for Technological Trend Analysis INT, Fraunhofer Group for Innovation Research, OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) and the Technische Hochschule Ingolstadt.

The paper focuses on the early identification of disruptive innovations, which, as opposed to sustaining innovations, bring change to customers, markets, industries. This change is often quite sudden and drastic. Thus, the early identification of disruptive technologies can be crucial for managers and policy makers alike. In this paper we propose a method to support the early identification of disruptive innovations. To do so we conceptualize a 5-phase pathway framework for disruptive innovation, then propose how to operationalize its phases using patent data. We combined the underlying theory by Christensen with different patent indicators from literature to develop an early warning system for disruptive innovations based on the underlying disruptive technologies. Additionally, we introduce the concept of patent zero and provide a first analysis.

The paper should be cited as: 

Martini, M., Tietze, F., John, M., Aristodemou, L., Schönmann, A., & Schimpf, S. (2024). Conceptualizing disruptive innovation paths, patent zero and patent-data based operationalization. CTM Working Papers (5/24), University of Cambridge. https://doi.org/10.17863/CAM.111428

The paper has been accepted and presented at the 2024 ISPIM conference. It is also available via Fraunhofer Publica: https://doi.org/10.24406/publica-3571